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THE DEMAND for photovoltaic wafers and cells will remain strong in the first quarter of 2016, as China, the US and the UK finalise their subsidy policies.
TrendForce expects prices of multi-Si wafers and cells to peak in February 2016, driven by China’s plans to connect its photovoltaic power plants onto the grid before the middle of the year.
Major manufacturers of multi-Si wafers, cells and modules will therefore be running at full capacity during the first quarter.
The PV supply chain could however be affected by an accident at DOWA Hightech’s silver powder plant. The firm is the leading supplier of silver powder for conductive paste, so if supplies of this raw material is compromised, cell manufacturers may not be able to maintain their high capacity utilisation.
In the US, the extension of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has dampened the industry’s anticipation of an installation rush in the second half of 2016.
While demand remains high for polysilicon photovoltaics, oversupply and Chinese trade barriers have caused polysilicon prices to drop sharply in January 2016. The Chinese polysilicon market remains in a slump, while Chinese polysilicon manufacturers and their downstream clients have kept their inventory levels to approximately two weeks to a month. While the decline of polysilicon prices will persist, the trend will start to moderate.
In contrast, demand is outstripping supply in the multi-Si wafer market. Manufacturers in this segment had conservatively increased their capacity during 2015. In 2016, there will be an additional 5GW added to overall multi-Si wafer capacity in 2016.
The mono-Si wafer market is experiencing a severe supply glut. Demand for mono-Si products totaled around 9.5GW in 2015, but the entire mono-Si wafer capacity exceeded 15GW for the same year. Additional manufacturing capacity expansions for this technology means the oversupply problem is not going away, and prices will fall even more.