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OLED lighting is unlikely to overtake LEDs in the next decade, according to IDTechEx Researcher.
While OLED is considered by some as the lighting technology which will replace LEDs, IDTechEx Research says it is most likely to become a US$1.3 billion market by 2023 – just 1.3 percent of the projected market size of LED lighting.
The report “OLED vs LED Lighting 2013-2023” finds OLED lighting will likely struggle to define and communicate its unique selling points.
Unless an “Apple-like design innovation” occurs, IDTechEx analysts says OLED will remain “an over-priced and under-performing option compared to LED lighting”.
As such, companies which opt to go down the OLED path will need to capitalise on superior design features to carve out niche markets in the hospitality, shopping and architectural sectors.
Competition will see panel makers’ profits dropping off, while value will migrate downstream to fixture/luminaire designers.
While OLED displays are growing quickly, OLED lighting is finding difficulties in differentiating itself from LED lighting.
While encapsulated LED chips regularly offer efficiencies of 90-100 lm/W, OLED modules are still in the region of 20-50lm/W. Additionally, LEDs outlast OLEDs with 50,000hr MTBF compared to OLED’s 5000 to 15,000hr.
Cost-wise, LED lighting also has OLED beaten, selling at US$5/klm at package level, compared to OLED’s US$300-500/klm at panel.
A number of things contribute to OLED’s high cost: the encapsulation layer (barrier, adhesive and desiccant) and integrated substrates (transparent conductive layer, substrate and out-coupling layer).
Currently, cavity glass is used as the barrier, which drives up the cost due to the additional processing required to carve out the cavity. According to IDTechEx, transitioning to frit glass and then to thin film encapsulation will help drive costs down.
Costs for the integrated substrate, which currently costs US$800-$900/m2 for the entire stack, are expected to be driven down to US$100-$120/m2 in 2023 with the help of new technologies like printing and grid materials.