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MOORE’s Law is about to come to an end, claims a recent article from the journal Nature.
The law, which was first articulated by Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel, in 1965, states that the number of transistors on a microprocessor will double roughly every two years.
Moore’s Law proved to be true for most of the 70s, 80s, 90s and the first decade of the 21st century, due largely to the technology industry engineering its chips to keep up with the predictions.
By developing and producing microprocessors to match up with Moore’s Law, chipmakers pushed their engineering and fabrication methods to advance despite limits. Nature says the worldwide semiconductor industry is on the verge of acknowledging that it cannot keep up with the pace of doubling transistors every two years.
Physics and economics are the main constraints for Moore’s Law: as microprocessor circuits become smaller and smaller, the heat given off increases. The smaller sizes make it ever more difficult to dissipate this heat – think, for example, of the ever hotter smartphones.
Another reason for abandoning Moore’s Law has to do with economics: the greater the number of transistors that must be packed into a chip, the more costly they become to manufacture. The fabrication facilities needed to produce these transistors and chips also become more expensive – today, only a few manufacturers can afford to build and support the cutting edge factories.
The post-Moore’s Law strategy will no longer be based on the number of transistors on the chip. Rather, the focus will start with applications, and the chips will be built upon what the application requires.
It may, however, be more accurate to pronounce this as a temporary hold for Moore’s Law. New material advances could one day replace silicons, bypass its limits, and allow the industry to once again progress according to Moore’s Law.