By 2050, high-speed broadband will be the new ubiquitous utility; sensors, machine-to-machine communication and the human body as computer interfaces will transform the economy, states a new report.
IBM and IBISWorld have released a report titled “A Snapshot of Australia’s Digital Future to 2050”, which claims Australia is entering a hyper digital era, where high-speed broadband will play a critical part in changing the way people live and work, and reconfigure the Australian economy.
According to Andrew Stevens, managing director of IBM Australia and New Zealand, the current debate regarding the cost and speeds of the National Broadband Network indicates a frustrating lack of vision by politicians and voters.
“We thought we should do a qualitative or quantitative research to prove or disprove our confidence in the economic impact of broadband,” Stevens said.
The new utility
Just as transport, mechanical power, electricity, water and gas have become transforming utilities, the report states broadband and connectivity will combine with existing and new Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to affect the functioning of society.
This new utility will also include analytics, learning systems, cognitive computing, etc. Broadband will be available in fixed, mobile and wireless form, leading to a future where a large percentage of Australia’s products and services, and work itself, will be strictly digital.
Leveraging the insight from IBISWorld, the report looks at 509 of Australia’s industry classes and how access to a new broadband utility will impact on the economy. Stevens said that broadband will have a significant, deep and broad impact on around 50 percent of the Australian economy.
Catching up
“The economic impact of the ICT industry will be in excess of $1 trillion by 2050,” Stevens told the media. “It can be a golden age, but we have to work for it. We are not automatically entitled to that future.”
A current concern for the Australian economy is the low productivity. Phil Ruthven, chairman of IBISWorld, said that during the past five years, productivity growth in Australia has dropped to a low 0.6 percent per annum.
The new broadband utility is projected to return Australia’s productivity growth to 1.7 percent per annum by 2020. By 2050, output per hour worked could double.
This boost in productivity along with other benefits to the economy will be mostly borne out by leaps in efficiency in seven industry divisions, including public administration and safety (defense), retail, mining, health care, professional services, education and training, and transport/logistics. Some of the most inefficient industries today will present the biggest opportunity for new benefits.
Ruthven said that Australia has to catch up with its Asian neighbours, not just in productivity, but also broadband speeds and take-up.
“It has never been more important, given we are part of Asia now, and they are far ahead of us. We have a big catch up to do, since we have thus far been protected by the mining boom,” Ruthven said.
Technologically speaking
Among the findings of the report are that Australian consumers will need a monthly data allowance of almost 200GB by 2020. Superfast broadband and technology will increase the number of haptic devices based on a virtual 3D environment.
According to the report, eventually, device interfaces will merge with the human body, with contact lenses becoming heads-up-displays, touch pads integrated into skin, and neural control.
In other words, all surfaces could become potential interface points with computers, devices and networked technologies. Epidermal electronic systems (EESs), for example, are microfilmic layers of electronics which adhere to the skin to monitor human vital signs: this technology may be extended to interfacing functions.
Within the mining sector, one of the key divisions expected to benefit significantly from the new utility, the current low efficiency of its operations will be boosted by smart sensors and machine-to-machine communications.
“Superfast broadband will play a very important function in logistics, virtual operations (including robotics), ore grade use optimisation and exploration analyses,” the report states. “This will become much more important as mineral prices pause and fall…in the 2020s.”
For the transport, postal and warehousing division, along with more traditional utilities like water, energy and gas, smart sensors and machine-to-machine communications will once again allow automated or more efficient operations.
Within society generally, Ruthven said the term “employee” will cease to be relevant, as teleworking and telepresence becoming a key trend, eliminating the need to travel from home or the countryside, overcoming the tyranny of distance.
Embracing the future
David Kennedy, research director at Ovum, said the report and recent developments show that Australia and the world is in a period of disruption, but having the right attitude to the changes will be important.
“We can try to protect what we have, pour everything into preserving older ways of doing things. The alternative is to identify the opportunity and adapt and change to pursue that opportunity,” Kennedy said. “If our story is that we are afraid of the future, then we will fail.”